Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Final Stand

March 4th looks to be it. While I'm disappointed in Hillary's poor showing of late, at least we got a real primary this time around and we can all hope it's made whoever should win a better general election candidate that Walnuts McCain.

Sunday, February 10, 2008


It's certainly true that at this moment Obama does better than Hillary vs. McCain. But the Obama campaign is kidding themselves if they think electability is one of Hillary's strong suits. For a lot of Democrats that normally might be inclined to support Hillary, the fear is she will unite the Republicans against her if she gets the nomination - including a number of Republicans who aren't so excited about voting for McCain. The reason Hillary is still standing, despite Obama's cash advantage and the press being passionately on his side, is that she clearly is more experienced and people believe that she'd make a good president while some worry the same may not be true for Obama. Electability is really a small issue that cuts both ways. The central dynamic is still inspiration vs. experience.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008


Roaming the blogosphere tonight I see that everyone is once again starry eyed by the amount of money that can be raised online. Look - I realize it's symbolic of a wealth of support if a candidate can pull in the kind of small dollar contributions Obama has managed to pull in. But what matters at the end of the day are votes cast. And recent history (*cough John Kerry vs. Howard Dean *cough or even, dare I say it, Ron Paul) tends to suggest that an ability to take in small dollar contributions online has almost no connection to vote getting power.

Simple answers to simple questions

Atrios wonders:
    The question really is about why Obama can raise $5 million in a day and (presumably) Clinton can't.
Because the media has portrayed Obama as the winner in every contest since New Hampshire.

Going forward

The big states yet to vote are Ohio and Texas (Mar. 4) and Pennsylvania (Apr. 22). Hillary has the support of both governors Strickland (OH) and Rendell (PA). What should be news right now is that despite his huge victory in South Carolina, Obama was only able to fight Hillary to a draw. Now the race heads to states far more friendly to Hillary: Texas with it's large number of hispanic voters, and Pennsylvania and Ohio with their large numbers of white, middle class, blue collar voters.

Point is, Obama was at his peak heading into Super Tuesday after a big win in South Carolina and a lot of negative press surrounding the Clintons. Yet, couldn't win a single large state. This isn't to suggest he can't go on to win, but the media might, for once try analyzing this race from some place other than David Axlerod's mustache.

...I just realized that I pretty much echo a Mark Penn press release from earlier today. But what he says is true. Despite the enormous media hoopla after both Obama's Iowa win and South Carolina victory, he simply hasn't lived up to the hype when the actual voting takes place.

Monday, February 4, 2008

A vote for universal health care

If you want it, you'll vote for Hillary. If you don't, you'll vote for Obama.

    If Mrs. Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, there is some chance — nobody knows how big — that we’ll get universal health care in the next administration. If Mr. Obama gets the nomination, it just won’t happen.

Saturday, February 2, 2008


McCain will win big clinching the nomination. Hillary will win a majority of Super-Tuesday delegates, but Obama will do well enough to continue the campaign into March.